Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Study and Forecast its Impactson Employment Management and Wages in China’s Key Cities
Abstract
The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming global economies, threatening job security across diverse fields, including AI development itself, as automation increasingly handles complex tasks traditionally performed by skilled professionals. As China leads global manufacturing and technological innovation, understanding the labor market implications of AI adoption is critical for shapingmanagement sciencepolicy and workforce development. This study investigates the impact of AI,measured by industrial robot installation density, on employment scale and wages in the manufacturing sectors of Beijing and Shanghai from 2006 to 2020, extending the analysis to 2030 using deep learning. Employing panel data and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, AI’s effects on job displacement and wage growthareanalyzed. Historical findings reveal a nuanced effect: AI adoption is strongly negatively correlated with
employment scale (r=−0.90,p< 0.01), with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing employment declines of 44.6% and 40.3%, respectively, from peak levels. Conversely, AI is positively correlated with wages (r= 0.96,p<0.01), with wage increases of 361% in Beijing and 324% in Shanghai. City-specific analyses show Shanghai’s steeper AI adoption correlates with greater employment declines but higher wage growth compared to Beijing. LSTM forecasts predict continued employment declines (49.8% in Beijing, 50.2% in Shanghai by 2030) and wage growth (51.3% in Beijing, 54.6% in Shanghai).Graphs illustrate historical and forecastedmanagementtrends.Country-level synthesis underscores implications for China’s labor market and other developing economies.
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