Uncertainty Quantficatonin Steady-State Heat Transfer: A Comprehensive Analysis of DRAM and MCMC Methods with Applications to Thermal Systems

Authors

  • Muhammad Abid Author

Abstract

Thisresearchaddressesthelimitatonsoftraditonaldeterministcmethodsin capturinguncertaintesinheattransfersystems,partcularlyinparameterest-matonanduncertaintyquantficaton.WeaimtoevaluateandcompareDelayed RejectonAdaptveMetropolis(DRAM)andMarkovChainMonteCarlo(MCMC)methodsforuncertaintyquantficatoninsteady-stateheattransfer,usingexper-imentaldatafromacopperrodwith15temperaturemeasurements.Thestudy estmatesheatfluxandconvectveheattransfercoefficientparameters,compar-ingresultswithOrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)estmaton.ResultsshowDRAM producestghterparameterdistributons(0.2312)comparedtoMCMC(0.2641),whilebothmethodsyieldsimilarmeanestmatesanddemonstratestrongnega-tvecorrelatonbetweenparameters.AcomparisonwithOLSshowscloseagree-mentacrossallthreemethods,concludingthatDRAMprovidesslightlysuperior performanceinparameterestmatonaccuracywhileallmethodseffectvelycap-tureparameteruncertaintesinsteady-stateheattransferanalysis.

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Published

2026-07-21

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Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Spectrum of Engineering and Management Sciences

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(1)
Uncertainty Quantficatonin Steady-State Heat Transfer: A Comprehensive Analysis of DRAM and MCMC Methods With Applications to Thermal Systems. SEMS 2026, 3 (1), 63-75.